Precious metals market observation

Precious metals market observation

Bill Baruch, senior strategist at iiTrader, said that the Fed's 2015 interest rate hike expectations are increasingly questioned and gold is supported. Jeffrey Gundlach, the new debt king who accurately predicted the U.S. Treasury yield to peak at 3% in 2014, said that he believes that the Fed's exit path is awPrecious metals market observationkward and may be forced to return. In addition, the global trading director of Jintuo said that the FOMC may not raise interest rates until 2016, and this Friday (January 30) will announce the initial value of the fourth quarter GDP annualized quarterly rate increase of about 3%. .

Judging from the current trend of gold, if no major accidents occur, it is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and the next target is 1550 US dollars. At the same time, we believe that the lower support level for gold is at $1527. If gold returns to the above point, investors may consider buying more gold on dips.

While the debt problems in Europe are surging, the national debt problems in the United States have become increasingly prominent. Negative news flooded the market, causing European and American stock markets and non-US currencies to fall across the board. Panic sentiment makes investors feel like a bird of horror. The withdrawal of a large amount of funds from risky assets has made the market liquidity scarce, and risk-averse factors continue to dominate short-term market price trends. The international spot gold price stabilized at the US$1,700/ounce mark after a rapid decline, and domestic spot gold also fluctuated around 350 yuan/g.

From the perspective of the situation, gold faced technical pressure last Friday. At the same time, the economic data released by the United States on Friday night was basically in line with market expectations. There was no major news of positive gold, but gold chose to break through the previous upward channel and pull it quickly. Rose, and hit a record high of $1,577 before the news came out of the market that Bin Laden was killed. After the announcement of the news, the price of gold fell sharply due to lower risk aversion.

The postponement of the Fed's interest rate hike date will increase the upward momentum of gold prices. Zou Lihu, an analyst at CITIC Futures, believes that the price of gold has fully factored into the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in the middle of this year. Therefore, even if the expectation is fulfilled, the price of gold will not be affected by a significant negative. On the contrary, when the US economic data is weak and the expectation of a US dollar interest rate hike weakens, the upward momentum of international gold prices will be stronger.

From the disclosure of the draft silver futures contract on April 17th to the issue of the student permPrecious metals market observationit by the China Securities Regulatory Commission yesterday, the period lasted only one week. Qu Xiaoning, assistant general manager of the Galaxy Futures R&D Center, said that for silver futures, the development of this product in the international market is relatively mature, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange is also fully prepared. The industry has expectations for the rapid approval of silver futures. He said that related training and investor education for silver futures by futures companies will also be carried out quickly. After May Day, Galaxy Futures will conduct training in various business departments across the country.

We are returning to an era in which gold is largely regarded as currency. This is now a complete reversal from what we observed in the 1990s, said Jonathan Spauer, Barclays Capital’s precious metals sales director. One of the obvious clues is that this year the European Central Bank made a net purchase of gold for the first time in 26 years. According to the latest data from the European Central Bank and the IMF, the gold reserves of European central banks have increased by 25,000 ounces to 0.8 metric tons this year, marking the first net purchase in 26 years. In the past, they sold an average of about 400 tons of gold each year.