In terms of silver, spot silver rose to a record high of US$49.51 per ounce in early May, and then fell sharply by 33%.Since mid-May, the price Dow Jones Precious Metals Indexof silver has been above US$32, and it has benefited from low US interest rates and sovereign debt in the Eurozone. With the crisis and inflation concerns in major emerging economies such as India, silver prices are expected to rise further in the second half of this year.
The Central Bank (PBOC) raised the deposit reserve ratio, and under the double pressure of the previous successful Portuguese and Spanish bond auctions, which suspended European debt worries, gold continued to fall after falling below the 60-day moving average yesterday. As of the latest time, the price of gold was as low as $1,361.90 /ounce.
International spot gold closed down by more than 1% on Wednesday (27th). It fell below the 1,340 and 1,330 U.S. dollar barriers in the intraday session, reaching the lowest level of 1,318.65 U.S. dollars, due to reports that the Fed may announce an approach at its meeting on November 1 The way to further relax the policy, prompting the dollar to rise.
1. Deputy Foreign Minister Fu Ying said on Saturday that she has been an active participant in the international community's support for Europe to overcome the crisis. When asked how to help, Fu Ying said that we hope to invest, we are increasing imports, and we are dispatching purchasing missions. This will not only create jobs for Europe, but also help stimulate the economy.
The futures exchange announced a few days ago that from July 5, gold and silver futures will be launched for the first time in night trading, from 21:30 to 2:30 the next day. Many industry insiders said that so far, the two major investment markets of domestic gold and silver spot and futures, the Gold Exchange and the Futures Exchange, have finally brought the trading hours into line with the international market.
In the near term, the non-agricultural employment report released by the United States last week performed well. The November non-agricultural employment report released by the US Department of Labor last Friday showed that the US unemployment rate dropped sharply to 8.6% in November, the lowest level since March 2009. At the same time, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 120 thousand in November; the number of non-agricultural employment in October was revised to Dow Jones Precious Metals Indexincrease by 100,000, the initial value increased by 80,000; the number of non-agricultural employment in September was revised to increase by 210,000, the initial value For an increase of 158,000. Therefore, the rapid decline in the unemployment rate in the United States in November and the sharp increase in non-agricultural data in the first two months show that the labor market in the United States continues to pick up and the US economy is recovering vigorously. This also means that the dollar may strengthen in the future, which is bad news for gold prices.
At 20:30 Beijing time last night, data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the current job market conditions are still worrying. According to statistics, although the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell from the previous value of 358,000 last week, it was still higher than the market consensus of 34, and the actual value was 35. The number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits was 2.874 million, with the previous value of 2.859 million, which is higher than the predicted value of 2.87 million. The less-than-expected data made investors' worries about the possibility of repeated US job markets rise sharply, boosting precious metals and non-US currencies to gain upward momentum. As of the close in New York, gold rose $13.67, or 1.03%, to close at $1,346.40. Spot silver also made good gains. As of the close of New York, it rose by $0.16, or 0.71%, to close at 22.64. In terms of currencies, a basket of currencies generally rose due to data suppressing the US dollar. Among them, the euro rose by 27 basis points, or 0.2%, breaking through the important resistance of 1.38 in one fell swoop, closing at 1.3802, the highest point since early November 2011. The pound even soared 212 basis points to 1.6165, an increase of 1.33%. HSBC's October manufacturing data released today (25th) by the world's second largest economy showed that the PMI rose to 50.7 in that month, which was higher than 50.2 in September and a new high in seven months. The data that is above the line of prosperity and decline and is gradually expanding indicates that the economy may have successfully bottomed out in the third quarter. It is very likely that the fourth quarter will continue the momentum of recovery and consolidate and accelerate economic development. At present, high-profile economic reforms are underway. At this time, the steady recovery of the economy has created conditions for accelerating structural reforms. In November, the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee will be held, which is expected to set the tone for the future development path. What kind of reform package the elites will throw out is currently one of the most concerned events of all parties in the market. In late October, the Federal Reserve will convene a monetary policy meeting again to discuss what measures should be used to deal with the current economic situation. The market believes that the Fed will continue its attitude in early October and continue to say no to reducing the scale of asset purchases. The current U.S. Treasury bond yields have recorded their first collective decline since July this year. It is also rare that the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 2.5%. This shows that the market's expectation of the Fed to cut QE in the near future is weakening. As a representative of the dovish faction, Yellen has always disapproved of the hawks' claims about disgusting inflation. She has repeatedly claimed that deflation is far more destructive to the US economy than inflation, and that the unemployment rate of 6.5% and 2% The inflation is not a stepping stone to change the federal interest rate. The attitude of the chairman who will take office on January 31 next year will have a stronger impact on the market. In terms of operations, gold currently operates around 1350. The bottom is supported by the 60-day line on the daily chart. The 5-day and 10-day lines crossed the 20-day moving average in parallel, showing that the bulls have the upper hand. If it can break through the 1350 line of suppression, the first goal is to be located near 1375-1380, and the second goal will challenge the 1400 integer mark. Spot silver is currently running around 22.40, with support from the 40-day line chart below and obvious pressure at 22.80 above. If it breaks above effectively, we maintain the previous target of $23.20 unchanged. In addition, given that the Federal Reserve is not expected to throw out plans to cut QE at the recent monetary policy meeting, the US dollar will continue to be under pressure for the next period, which will effectively boost the trend of precious metals. We continue to maintain the arbitrage recommendation of buying silver while selling gold.
The change in investor confidence can be seen from the gold price trend over the past year and a half. Since the beginning of September 2011, after the price of gold hit an all-time high of $1,922 per ounce, investors remain confident in the rise of gold prices. However, entering 2012, with the signs of economic recovery in the United States becoming obvious and the unemployment rate slowly falling, even if the Fed pushed forward the quantitative easing policy, it did not change the trend of weak gold prices, and investors' investment confidence continued to weaken.
In June, gold showed a trend characteristic of first decline and then rise. In late June, the price of London gold broke through the previous high several times and closed up 2.85% that month. Driven by international gold prices, domestic gold prices have also generally risen. However, due to the effective control of the domestic epidemic in June, the number of infections in the United States continued to soar. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated by nearly 1%, and the domestic gold price rose less than the London gold price in June. Among them, Au99.99 on the Gold Exchange rose by 1.48%, Au (T+D) rose by 1.53%; the main gold futures contract on the Futures Exchange rose by 1.6%, and the growth rates of the three have decreased for two consecutive months. Au99.99 is a real spot contract, and the delivery method is both money and goods. The Au99.99 contract purchased on the gold exchange can apply for delivery if it reaches 100 lots or more. The delivery product is a gold ingot with a standard weight of 1 kg and a fineness of not less than 99.99%. Therefore, the trading volume of Au99.99 usually represents the demand for physical gold in the market. The demand for physical gold includes two aspects: one is investment demand related to the currency attribute of gold, and the other is consumption related to the commodity attribute of gold. Demand, consumer demand includes jewelry, industrial and dental gold. Most of the demand for physical gold in my country comes from consumer demand, and whether consumer demand is strong or not depends on the price of gold. In April, May and June, the domestic gold price continued to rise, while the trading volume of Au99.99 continued to decline. Au (T+D) and mAu (T+D) are deferred settlement contracts, which are bought and sold on the exchange in the form of margin payment. The minimum margin ratio is 6%. From the perspective of trading rules, these two contracts are often used for hedging or speculative trading. The amount of hedging depends on the market conditions of physical gold, and the amount of speculative trading depends on the trend and fluctuation of gold prices. To be honest, most of the trading volume of Au (T+D) and mAu (T+D) is contributed by speculative trading. Driven by international gold prices in mid-to-late June, domestic gold prices also gradually rose. The total trading volume of Au (T+D) and mAu (T+D) increased by 12.27% month-on-month, and the total open interest increased by 6.44%. The silver price in June both increased and the amplitude was smaller than that in May, but the trading volume of Ag (T+D) decreased slightly, and the open interest increased by 6.2%. The June trading volume of gold futures contracts in different months of the futures exchange was basically the same as that in May, and the open interest at the end of the month increased by 19.67%; the June trading volume of silver futures contracts in different months fell by 6.8% from the previous month, and the open interest at the end of the month increased by 12.26%. . In general, the positions of leveraged gold, silver futures and deferred contracts are increasing at the end of June, indicating that investors are bullish on gold and silver. Although the US non-agricultural employment population and unemployment rate data released on July 2 were significantly better than expected and previous values, they did not cause an effective blow to precious metals. Looking back at the non-agricultural employment data from January to June this year, the total number of employed people has decreased by 13.394 million. The non-agricultural employment data in June can only prove that employment has recovered from a very low point, but it is far from returning to the level before the outbreak. The sharp increase in the number of people infected with the epidemic in the United States last week has made investors worry that the economic recovery may be slower. Blindly investing in the real economy before the economy recovers will make people lose their money. Therefore, gold is favored under risk aversion. The U.S. bond yields on July 2 were still falling, indicating that people are more inclined to safe-haven assets. In addition, affected by the Fed's unlimited quantitative easing policy, there is a large amount of liquidity in the U.S. banking system, and the M1 stock is huge. When the epidemic is brought under control, lower interest rates will increase investment and increase inflation. In the long run, this property of fighting inflation will make the bull market of gold last for a long time.
According to Yahoo Finance, the US retail giant Macy's will close 68 stores and reduce 10,000 jobs. Coincidentally, US Hills Holdings also announced that it will close 108 Kmart supermarkets and 42 Sears stores this year.