In addition, the global stock market crash is also one of the reasons for the rise in gold prices. The U.S. S&P 500 Index hit its lowest level in two yearPrecious metal prices Monexs on Thursday. The three major stock indexes in Britain, Germany and France all fell more than 5% in the week ending Thursday; Japanese stocks fell 11.1% in a week, a record since the 2008 financial crisis The biggest weekly decline, the market's risk aversion sentiment soared, and safe-haven assets such as gold, national debt, and the yen broke out.
Dai Weiyu said that the downgrade of France's rating will have a short-term positive impact, and its impact on the euro will be deeper, but its negative impact on the stock market and commodities and other non-US currencies such as the Australian dollar will not be too deep. How to interpret the market depends on the performance of the European and American markets this afternoon. Dai Weiyu said that the support level below the euro is 1.23 to 1.25. If the Australian dollar can stabilize at the level of 1 to 1.02, there is still a chance to rise.
In 2011, the gold market was turbulent, out of the N form of rushing high, falling sharply, and slowly stabilizing. The international gold price surged from US$1,400 per ounce at the beginning of last year to a record high of US$1,920, and then plunged sharply, with a sharp correction to 1,530 US dollars. , And stabilized above $1600 at the end of the year. The trend of the Year of the Golden Rabbit shocked gold market investors. Some people questioned that the ten-year bull market for gold prices is coming to an end, and there is a fear of gold investment. Gold talks about it one after another.
However, this only means that the central bank has just started to keep up with private investors. Many years ago, private investors have begun to pick up in gold investment. According to data from GFMS and the World Gold Council, at the end of 2009, private investors' gold holdings gradually exceeded official holdings. In 2010, they accounted for about 18.7% of total gold holdings, while official holdings accounted for 17.4%. These include the central bank and the International Monetary Fund.
In this regard, Zhao Xueqing believes that overall, the euro does not have the possibility of replacing the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. From the perspective of income, the euro has been stuck in negative interest rates for a long time, and the US dollar is in the range of normal interest rates; from the perspective of security, the euro has its own inherent structural problems, especially in recent years when the European integration process has been blocked, and the long-term existence of the euro was once questioned. Surpassing the US dollar as a single sovereign currency has become the primary reserve option; considering historical performance, the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has been consistently higher than the euro by more than 40 percentage points since 1999. Unless major changes in interests and changes in the international landscape, the euro cannot surpass the US dollar. international status. Of course, as the game between global powers intensifies and geopolitical risks have increased, some countries threatened by US sanctions, such as Russia, have begun to increase reserves of euros and renminbi to replace US dollar holdings, but this has not fundamentally changed global currencies and foreign exchange. Reserve pattern.
Judging from historical trends, silver prices maintain a relatively high positive correlation with inflation. At present, the United States continues to maintain its quantitative easing monetary policy. With the beginning of post-disaster reconstruction, Japan will also injecPrecious metal prices Monext new liquidity into the financial system. Although Europe has raised interest rates, it has not shown any significant improvement in economic conditions. The major economies have no other choice but to continue to release a large amount of liquidity. The cost is the constant inflation crisis and asset price bubbles. The breadth and depth of the impact on precious metal resources such as silver may exceed expectations.
On November 3, the Fed implemented a second quantitative easing policy. The Federal Reserve decided to maintain a 0%-0.25% federal funds rate for a long time, and printed 600 billion US dollars for the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, plus the previous mortgage asset MBS's return of approximately 250 billion to 300 billion for use before June 2011 Buy U.S. Treasury bonds. In other words, the total scale of QE2 is 850 billion to 900 billion. As we all know, the United States has begun a new round of quantitative easing. The QE plan is nothing more than using rising inflation in exchange for negative interest rates, depreciating the dollar and letting liquidity vent the capital market again. Facing the high-profile QE in the United States, the attitudes of developed countries and emerging economies can be described as distinct. One side opened the gate to release water, and the other side built a wall to prevent flooding. The Bank of England announced that it will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, while maintaining the asset purchase scale of 200 billion pounds unchanged. The European Central Bank announced that it will maintain interest rates unchanged at 1% for the 18th consecutive month, and maintain overnight loan and deposit rates unchanged at 1.75% and 0.25%, in line with market expectations. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced its interest rate decision on Friday, announcing to maintain the overnight target interest rate unchanged at 0-0.1% and maintain the asset purchase scale at 5 trillion yuan. The active quantitative easing measures of these developed countries have put pressure on emerging economies. Brazil condemned the Fed’s actions. The Bank of Thailand expressed concern about the core inflation rate in 2011. The Bank of Thailand is in close consultation with other central banks in Asia to prepare measures to prevent excessive speculation. Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe are quite worried about the extremely loose monetary policy of the United States. Many emerging economies vowed on Thursday to take new measures to curb capital flows.
This trading day will announce the UK’s July seasonally adjusted retail sales, the Eurozone’s July reconciliation and core CPI final value, Switzerland’s August ZEW economic status and investor confidence index, the United States’ July new housing starts and construction permits, the United States’ last week’s quarter After adjusting the number of initial jobless claims, the US August Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index.
According to the plan, the leaders of EU member states are scheduled to hold a regular summer summit next week, which is considered to be the deadline for the EU to introduce a new Greek rescue plan. However, the deadlock in the meeting on the 14th cast a shadow over the introduction of a new Greek rescue plan. Overseas media analysis believes that, in full view, whether the euro zone can avoid a sovereign debt default for the first time depends on whether German Chancellor Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy can resolve their differences during their meeting in Berlin on the 17th of this month.